The National League Central was not even close to being the best division in the NL last year. However, not only do the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals reside in this division, the last three National League Champions have called the Central Division their home (Cardinals in '04 and '06, Astros '05). Regardless of regular season results, the NL Central has put up a good showing in the playoffs in recent years.

With a new season just around the corner, a division that saw it's top four teams finish within 8.5 games of each other in 2006, could see a similarly tight race in '07. Several key offseason moves by the Cardinals and Astros, plus an insane spending spree by the Cubs make this a very intriguing division on paper. First up, the St. Louis Cardinals.


1. St. Louis Cardinals (2006 Record: 83-78; World Series Champions)
The St. Louis Cardinals pulled off an unthinkable October by knocking off the Padres and the heavily favored Mets and Tigers to win their first World Series since 1982. But this was after a regular season that saw the Cards almost blow a 13 game division lead in the last few weeks of the season, only to win the division by 1.5 games over Houston. The Cardinals also suffered numerous injuries along the way, most of them to several key contributors (Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, David Eckstein, Jason Isringhausen, and Mark Mulder all spend time on the DL).

But when it came time for October baseball, the Cardinals did what they were not able to do in six of the last seven years that they made the playoffs: they played their best ball when it mattered most. Now, after losing NLCS MVP Jeff Suppan, second basemen Ronnie Belliard, World Series Game 5 winner Jeff Weaver, and "I-Was-Left-Off-The-Postseason-Roster-And-I-Don't-Know-Why-Even-Though-My-6.00+ ERA-Might-Have-Something-To-Do-With-It" Jason Marquis, the Cardinals look to rebuild and make a run at a second title.

This offseason was a typical St. Louis Cardinals offseason. They let their overpriced free agents walk. Team management then told local media and fans that they were making a play for some of the bigger free agents on the market, when in reality, no way would their contract offers match up to the teams that were throwing money around like crazy. So the Cardinals re-signed injured started Mark Mulder and Kip Wells for their rotation. Jim Edmonds was brought back for two more years. They brought in second basemen and former Cardinal Adam Kennedy (who was traded for Jim Edmonds) to pair up with his former double play mate David Eckstein. They re-signed the majority of their bench which included Scott Spiezio, Preston Wilson, and Gary Bennett.

What that adds up to is the least amount of offseason turnover the Cardinals offense has experienced in the last few years. They only lost one position player, and he was only there for the last 1/4 of the season. Same goes for the bullpen where pretty much everyone returns from a bullpen that had a fantastic postseason run. However, what stability the offense and bullpen gained is what the rotation lost. Suppan, Marquis, and Weaver are out and Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright (playoff closer extraordinaire), Kip Wells, and Braden Looper/Brad Thompson/Ryan Franklin are in.

Obviously, the rotation is the big question. Beyond former Cy Young Award Winner Chris Carpenter, who will step up and win some games? Reyes proved that he can win big games with his masterful performance in Game One of the World Series where he shut the Detroit Tigers down and set the tone for the series. However, he is very streaky and can get very rattled if he is knocked around early. Adam Wainwright proved he can pitch in pressure situations by being on the mound each time the Cardinals clinched a series victory. The question with these two is whether they can parlay each of their successes into a solid campaign as a starting pitcher in the Major League.

Kip Wells has only finished over .500 once in his career and even that year he went 10-9. But what people forget is that Jeff Suppan had a similarly unflattering career record (62-75) until he came to St. Louis, where he transformed into a big game picture who went 44-26 with the Cardinals. Kip Wells, like Suppan before he became a Cardinal, has never really pitched for a good team. He has suffered some injuries, but working with Dave Duncan could help him as much as it helped Suppan. Add the run support and defense that the Cardinals are known for with the help of Duncan, and Kip Wells could become a very solid starter for the Cardinals. And if that happens, once Mulder gets back, the top 3 rotation spots for the Cardinals will be locked up. Until then, the Cardinals will determine their 5th starter in camp. If Franklin, Looper, or Thompson (whoever gets penciled into that slot) can keep the Cardinals in games, this team will be well on its way to another division title.

Like the Atlanta Braves in the NL East for years, the Cardinals will remain my pick to win the NL Central until a team knocks them off of that pedestal. While their reign may be the most vulnerable as it has been since 2000, I think the Cardinals have enough firepower to bring home their 4th straight division title.

Labels: St. Louis Cardinals