5 Players With A Shot At 500 Home Runs This Year

There are currently 20 members of the 500 Home Run club but that club could be expanded to 25 before the end of the year.

39 year old Frank Thomas 494. Thomas is having an awful year hitting only .225 with a .391 slugging percentage for the Blue Jays but barring injury Thomas should easily hit #500 some time this year. He's got 7 homers so far with 6 more to go.

31 year old Alex Rodriguez 483. Rodriguez is leading the majors with 19 home runs and should also easily pass 500 this year barring injury. In fact the way things are going now there's a good shot he'll get there before Thomas.

35 year old Manny Ramirez 478. Ramirez is having an awful year and will have to step up his pace to hit #500 this year but if he can regain his form and hit home runs at his usual pace the rest of the year he's got a good shot at it.

36 year old Jim Thome 478. Thome was on fire early in the year before being sidelined with an injury. Injuries are the only thing that stands in the way of Thome joining the 500 home run club and if he can stay healthy and hit home runs at the pace he is so far this year (6 in 73 at bats) he could do it.

38 year old Gary Sheffield 467. Sheffield started the year very poorly but has been on fire as of late. With 33 home runs to go to reach 500 Sheffield would have to stay very hot to have a shot. He's hit 3 home runs in his last 2 games and after a horrible April has been one of the best hitters in the big leagues during May.

What other active players have a shot of joining the 500 home run club?

35 year old Carlos Delgado 414. Delgado has been cold this year but he just hit 2 home runs last night. Delgado has an active streak of 10 consecutive seasons with 30 or more home runs. Barring injury or a significant decrease in production Delgado will probably join the 500 home run club in 2010.

35 year old Chipper Jones 369. Jones has 131 to go and at age 35 is far from a lock. He's having a great season but looking at his recent home run numbers he'll have to play about 5 solid injury free seasons to get there. If Jones does reach 500 it'll probably be in 2012.

36 year old Jason Giambi 357. Giambi's shot at 500 looks to be on very thin ice as he is having trouble staying healthy. But he did hit 37 homers last year. If he can keep his body together and play full seasons he could have a shot at 500 in 2011 at age 40.

30 year old Andruw Jones 350. Jones is close to a lock to join the 500 club as long as he can stay healthy. Jones will probably hit #500 in 2011.

31 year old Vladimir Guerrero 348. Similar situation to Jones, Guerrero is a lock to join the 500 club barring injuary. He should also hit #500 in 2011.

32 year old Richie Sexson 280. Sexson is somewhat more of a long shot but he has 31, 30, 45, 29, 45, 39, and 34 home runs in his last 7 healthy seasons (he missed most of 2004 with injury.) If things go Sexson's way and he avoids injury then 2014 would be a likely season for him to hit #500.

30 year old Troy Glaus 265. Somewhat similar situation to Sexson. Glaus is a couple of years younger but he recently missed much of 2003 and 2004 with injury. He's had 6 full years and in those seasons he's hit 29, 47, 41, 30, 37, and 38 home runs so if he can stay healthy and put up those kind of numbers for the next 6 or 7 years he could be right there in 2014 or 2015 at #500.

27 year old Albert Pujols 258. Pujols is having a sub par year thus far but is showing signs of getting on track. Pujols first 6 MLB seasons have been incredible. If he can sustain what he's done thus far he should have no problem reaching the 500 home run club. At his current pace 2013 will be the year he hits 500.

33 year old Jermaine Dye 246. Dye is a real long shot and I almost didn't include him but I will because it's not completely impossible. He did hit a career high 44 home runs last year but only has 2 other years over 30 (2000 with 33 and 2005 with 31.) Very unlikely but if he can put up a few more years like last year and he can stay healthy and play well into his 40s he may have a small shot at 500.

31 year old Miguel Tejada 245. Another very long shot, Tejada has never hit more than 34 home runs in a season but he's been consistent hitting at least 21 in all of his full seasons. If Tejada hits #500 it will be because he plays a very long healthy career. I highly doubt he hits #500 but if he does it'll probably be around 2019 at age 43.

31 year old David Ortiz 240. 240 at age 31 makes him look like a long shot but he's hit 41, 47, and 54 his last 3 years. A few more years like that and he'll be in pretty good position. If he can continue at something close to his monster pace of the last few years he'll be around #500 in 2014 or 2015.

Home Run Hitting Players Under 30 Years Old To Keep An Eye On:

29 year old Eric Chaves with 218.

27 year old Adam Dunn with 212.

27 year old Mark Teixeira with 149.

24 year old Miguel Cabrera with 113.

26 year old Justin Morneau with 95.

27 year old Ryan Howard with 91.